Weekly Climate Summary 09/13/2021

This week in Texas weather continued fall's trend of being particularly dry. The vast majority of the state saw a precipitation accumulation of 0.1” or less. Across the state, there were pockets of increased precipitation such as south of the western end of the Red River border between Oklahoma, as well as the Edwards Plateau and the northern Gulf Coast. These areas received 0.15”-0.9”. Coryell county and Harris county received the most precipitation at 1.2” and 1.5” respectively.

The majority of the state saw temperatures above the normal during this week including most of west and central Texas, however, temperatures in eastern Texas and the Piney Woods region were below the normal. The Panhandle, Big Bend, and Hill County regions saw the largest temperature departure between 2-8 degrees warmer than the normal. Trending east in the Eastern Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Prairies and Lakes region, temperatures were slightly lower but still warmer at around 2 degrees above the normal. The Piney Woods region was the exception with temperatures 2-6 degrees cooler than the normal. While Knox and Wood counties were particularly lower than the normal at 6 degrees cooler, Tarrant county had the most extreme temperature departure at 10 degrees cooler.

The start of this week saw a low pressure system develop in the northern United States that swept across the central region of the nation. The tail end of the cold front that formed due to this system first made an appearance in Texas on Wednesday the 8th and had left by Friday the 10th. The cold front mainly hit the eastern side of the state which explains the cooler temperatures in this region compared to the west.

Looking forward, a major story for Texas weather is Tropical Storm Nicholas which is projected to make landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast this Monday, September 13th. Tropical Storm Nicholas is projected to bring significant rainfall to the Gulf Coast at up to 10”. The storm is also expected to cause increased precipitation, between 1”-6”, in the southern portions of the Piney Woods, Prairies and Lakes, and Hill County Regions. In all these areas, flash floods are also likely especially south of Houston along the coast, where a 50% likelihood of flooding has been projected. The areas north of this region, including Houston have a slightly lower chance of flooding with a likelihood of 20%. Furthermore, as a result of this tropical storm, storm surge is expected to reach between 2-5 feet along the Texas Gulf Coast especially between Port Aransas and Sabine Pass.