Weekly Climate Summary 09/20/2021

This week in Texas weather saw the continued trend of a dry fall. Across the majority of the state, outside the Gulf Coast and Southern Piney Woods, saw very little precipitation. The state averaged less than 0.1”. The northwest corner of the Panhandle saw increased accumulation between 0.5”-3”, especially in Lipscomb county. The main story for this week was the impact of Hurricane Nicholas across the Gulf Coast. The Hurricane made landfall Monday night but caused a surplus of precipitation across the coast before and after. The southern portion of the coast saw less precipitation at 1”-3”. Further up the coast where Hurricane Nicholas made landfall saw precipitation all the way up to 9”. Specifically this accumulation was seen in counties between Brazoria to Jefferson.

As with precipitation, the majority of the state continued the fall trend with above normal temperatures. The Big Bend Region, Eastern South Plains, as well as the Panhandle saw the greatest increase in temperature departure. These areas observed temperatures 2-8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the normal. Specifically, Val Verde, Motley, and Lipscomb counties saw the warmest departure at 8 degrees Fahrenheit. The eastern part of the South Plains, the southern Gulf Coast, the Hill Country, the northern Piney Woods, and the Prairies and Lakes regions all saw warmer than normal temperatures as well. These areas saw a slightly less warm departure at 1-2 degrees Fahrenheit higher. Finally, the remainder of the state, the southern Piney Woods and the Northern Gulf Coast saw below normal temperatures at 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit cooler. The cooler temperatures in this area can be attributed to Hurricane Nicolas and its landfall in this area.

Looking forward, the Climate Prediction Center has issued its 6-10 day outlook for the following week. Precipitation chances for the majority of the state have been given a 50-60% chance of being below normal. For temperatures, the northern and central areas of the state are predicted to have above normal temperatures with a 33-60% chance, with the highest likelihood being in the Panhandle at 50-60%. The Gulf Coast in contrast has been given a 33-40% chance of cooler than normal temperatures.

Physical temperatures could be cooler than what we’ve been experiencing this September as a cold front is moving into the state over the course of the week. Forecasts project the cold front to pass through between September 20th and September 22nd. Furthermore, rain showers are expected ahead of the front as the denser cool air will provide the necessary lift to create storms.